Market Performance Overview
- BTC/USD: Rose 4.1% ($83,500 → $86,900)
- ETH/USD: Surged 8.9% ($1,900 → $2,070)
Price Stability and Key Levels
BTC’s realized volatility declined last week as prices stabilized within the $81.5K–$87.5K range. By March 24, the market tested a descending resistance trendline from late February’s peak.
Upside Scenario:
- Break above $87.5K–$88K could retest resistance at $91K**, followed by **$93K.
- Sustained momentum may target the critical $100K threshold.
Downside Scenario:
- Strong support at $80K**, extending to **$77K with minor buy-side pressure.
- A drop below $73.5K** (key support) signals deeper correction risks, potentially reaching **$60K–$65K, invalidating our current bullish outlook.
👉 Explore real-time BTC price trends
Macroeconomic Context
- FOMC Meeting: Powell’s remarks dismissed hawkish expectations, lowering the VIX Index to 19 (from 29 two weeks prior).
- Tariff News: April 2nd updates hinted at targeted measures, boosting risk assets. Market pessimism appears priced in, creating asymmetric reactions to positive news.
Cryptocurrency Highlights
- Trump’s DAS Speech: A prerecorded 5-minute video briefly lifted BTC to $87K** before weekend risk-off sentiment pulled prices back to **$83K. Subsequent tariff optimism pushed BTC to $87K again.
- ETH Breakthrough: Cleared bearish resistance, sustaining above $2K with stronger upward traction.
Volatility Trends
- Realized Volatility: Dropped to 40 (February lows), likely settling in the 30–40 range with occasional spikes to 50–60.
Implied Volatility Curve:
- Front-end declines steepened the term structure, pulling down far-end IV through September.
- Policy-related premiums faded as short-term narratives grew stale.
- Declining correlation with S&P 500 reduced equity Beta considerations.
Skew and Kurtosis Dynamics
- Short-Term Skew: Rebalanced as downside liquidation risks diminished.
- Long-Term Skew: Adjusted upward due to sell-side pressure.
- Kurtosis: Declined with IV compression; directional traders deployed 1x2 ratio call spreads, suppressing wing prices.
👉 Track BTC volatility metrics
FAQs
Q: What drove ETH’s outperformance last week?
A: ETH broke key resistance levels, benefiting from broader crypto optimism and reduced bearish pressure.
Q: How does VIX impact BTC volatility?
A: Lower VIX (e.g., sub-20) reduces equity market spillover risks, allowing BTC volatility to trade on crypto-specific factors.
Q: What’s the bullish target for BTC in 2024?
A: Our mid-term outlook projects $115K–$125K, contingent on macro stability and ETF inflows.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only. Always conduct independent research before making investment decisions.
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