The cryptocurrency market experienced tremendous growth during the last bull run (2020–2021), with its total capitalization soaring from $150 billion in 2020 to nearly $3 trillion by November 2021. Among the standout performers were layer-1 blockchains Solana (SOL) and Avalanche (AVAX), which delivered staggering returns of 173x and 36.5x, respectively.
This article explores whether emerging chains SUI and APTOS could replicate this success in the current cycle by analyzing key growth drivers, fundamental metrics, and price potential.
Market Capitalization Projections: Comparing Past and Current Bull Runs
Historical Context
- 2021 Bull Peak: Crypto market cap reached ~$3 trillion (20x from the 2020 bear market bottom of $150B).
- Current Status: After hitting a bear market low of ~$800B, the market has rebounded to **$2.5T (just 20% below all-time highs**).
Forward Estimates
- Optimistic Scenario: If growth mirrors the last cycle (20x), the market could reach $16T—though this seems improbable.
- Conservative Benchmark: Comparing crypto’s 6% ratio to the US stock market’s $50.2T peak in 2021 suggests a **$4.5T crypto cap is plausible (80% upside** from current levels).
Key Data Points:
- Stablecoin market cap is 8.8% below its ATH.
- BTC dominance: 40% ($1.8T = ~$94,737/BTC).
- ETH dominance: 19% ($855B = ~$7,125/ETH).
Layer-1 Performance Metrics: Lessons from Solana and Avalanche
2021 Bull Run Highlights
| Metric | Solana (SOL) | Avalanche (AVAX) |
|---|---|---|
| Peak Market Cap | $770B (2.4% dominance) | $300B (1% dominance) |
| TVL | $140B | $110B |
| Daily Users | 400K | 200K |
| dApps | 350+ | 200+ |
Growth Drivers Recap
- Scalability: SOL’s Proof-of-History (PoH) and AVAX’s subnets enabled sub-cent fees.
- Ecosystem Hooks: SOL’s DeFi/NFT boom (e.g., Serum, Magic Eden) and AVAX’s $180M incentive program.
- Capital Inflows: Backing from top VCs like a16z.
SUI vs. APTOS: Fundamental Comparison
Technical Benchmarks
| Parameter | SUI | APTOS |
|---|---|---|
| Throughput | 120,000 TPS | 160,000 TPS |
| Avg. Fee | <$0.01 | <$0.01 |
| Language | Move | Move |
Ecosystem Health
| Metric | SUI | APTOS |
|---|---|---|
| TVL | $1.1B | $730M |
| Daily Users | 10K–20K | 30K–40K |
| dApps | 86 | 188 |
| Funding | $380M | $350M |
Competitive Edge:
- Both chains use Move language, reducing developer friction.
- TVL already exceeds SOL/AVAX’s starting points ($5B and $3B, respectively).
- Weakness: Limited cross-chain interoperability and niche DeFi focus (vs. broader narratives like AI/DePIN).
Price Predictions: Bull Case Scenarios
Assuming a $4.5T total crypto market cap by 2025 and comparable L1 dominance:
Scenario 1: SUI as the "Next Solana"
- SUI Market Cap: $108B → **$31/SUI** (15x from current ~$2).
- APTOS Market Cap: $45B → **$88/APT** (21x from current ~$4).
Scenario 2: APTOS as the "Next Solana"
- APTOS Market Cap: $108B → **$211/APT**.
- SUI Market Cap: $45B → **$13/SUI**.
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FAQs
1. What made Solana and Avalanche successful in 2021?
- Scalability: Sub-second transactions with ultra-low fees.
- Ecosystems: Killer apps (e.g., StepN for SOL, Aave for AVAX).
- Incentives: Multi-million-dollar grant programs.
2. Does Move language give SUI/APTOS an advantage?
Yes—Move’s security-focused design reduces smart contract vulnerabilities, but adoption hinges on developer traction.
3. Could Layer-2s diminish L1 growth this cycle?
Potentially. Ethereum L2s (e.g., Arbitrum, Optimism) now offer comparable throughput, shifting competition to modular vs. monolithic chain designs.
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Final Thoughts: Is Another "Super Chain" Rally Likely?
While SUI and APTOS show promise, the rise of app-specific chains and L2 solutions may dilute the monolithic L1 narrative. Investors should monitor:
- Ecosystem diversity beyond DeFi.
- Cross-chain bridges to improve liquidity.
- Institutional interest in Move-based projects.
The next 10x–20x opportunities will likely emerge from chains that solve real-world use cases—not just technical benchmarks.